Expert views - and disagreements - about the potential of energy technology R&amp;D

Anadon, Laura Diaz; Baker, Erin; Bosetti, Valentina; Aleluia Reis, Lara

Expert views - and disagreements - about the potential of energy technology R&D

cam.issuedOnline	2016-03-01
dc.contributor.author	Anadon, Laura Diaz
dc.contributor.author	Baker, Erin
dc.contributor.author	Bosetti, Valentina
dc.contributor.author	Aleluia Reis, Lara
dc.date.accessioned	2018-10-10T05:16:02Z
dc.date.available	2018-10-10T05:16:02Z
dc.date.issued	2016-06
dc.description.abstract	Mitigating climate change will require innovation in energy technologies. Policy makers are faced with the question of how to promote this innovation, and whether to focus on a few technologies or to spread their bets. We present results on the extent to which public R&D might shape the future cost of energy technologies by 2030. We bring together three major expert elicitation efforts carried out by researchers at UMass Amherst, Harvard, and FEEM, covering nuclear, solar, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), bioelectricity, and biofuels. The results show experts believe that there will be cost reductions resulting from R&D and report median cost reductions around 20 % for most of the technologies at the R&D budgets considered. Although the improvements associated to solar and CCS R&D show some promise, the lack of consensus across studies, and the larger magnitude of the R&D investment involved in these technologies, calls for caution when defining what technologies would benefit the most from additional public R&D. In order to make R&D funding decisions to meet particular goals, such as mitigating climate change or improving energy security, or to estimate the social returns to R&D, policy makers need to combine the information provided in this study on cost reduction potentials with an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of these technological changes. We conclude with recommendations for future directions on energy expert elicitations.
dc.identifier.doi	10.17863/CAM.30693
dc.identifier.eissn	1573-1480
dc.identifier.issn	0165-0009
dc.identifier.uri	https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/283325
dc.language	en
dc.language.iso	eng
dc.publisher	Springer Science and Business Media LLC
dc.publisher.url	http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1626-0
dc.subject	46 Information and Computing Sciences
dc.subject	4407 Policy and Administration
dc.subject	44 Human Society
dc.subject	7 Affordable and Clean Energy
dc.subject	9 Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
dc.title	Expert views - and disagreements - about the potential of energy technology R&D
dc.type	Article
dcterms.dateAccepted	2016-02-06
prism.endingPage	691
prism.issueIdentifier	3-4
prism.publicationDate	2016
prism.publicationName	Climatic Change
prism.startingPage	677
prism.volume	136
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate	2016-06
rioxxterms.licenseref.uri	http://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved
rioxxterms.type	Journal Article/Review
rioxxterms.version	AM
rioxxterms.versionofrecord	10.1007/s10584-016-1626-0