cam.issuedOnline	2022-06-29
dc.contributor.author	Warren, Rachel
dc.contributor.author	Andrews, Oliver
dc.contributor.author	Brown, Sally
dc.contributor.author	Colón-González, Felipe J
dc.contributor.author	Forstenhäusler, Nicole
dc.contributor.author	Gernaat, David EHJ
dc.contributor.author	Goodwin, P
dc.contributor.author	Harris, Ian
dc.contributor.author	He, Yi
dc.contributor.author	Hope, Chris
dc.contributor.author	Manful, Desmond
dc.contributor.author	Osborn, Timothy J
dc.contributor.author	Price, Jeff
dc.contributor.author	Van Vuuren, Detlef
dc.contributor.author	Wright, Rebecca Mary
dc.contributor.orcid	Warren, Rachel [0000-0002-0122-1599]
dc.date.accessioned	2022-06-29T19:50:46Z
dc.date.available	2022-06-29T19:50:46Z
dc.date.issued	2022-06
dc.date.submitted	2020-11-03
dc.date.updated	2022-06-29T19:50:45Z
dc.description	Funder: Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011693
dc.description.abstract	<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p> The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global warming to ‘well below 2 °C’ and to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit it to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify global and regional risk-related metrics associated with these levels of warming that capture climate change–related changes in exposure to water scarcity and heat stress, vector-borne disease, coastal and fluvial flooding and projected impacts on agriculture and the economy, allowing for uncertainties in regional climate projection. Risk-related metrics associated with 2 °C warming, depending on sector, are reduced by 10–44% globally if warming is further reduced to 1.5 °C. Comparing with a baseline in which warming of 3.66 °C occurs by 2100, constraining warming to 1.5 °C reduces these risk indicators globally by 32–85%, and constraining warming to 2 °C reduces them by 26–74%. In percentage terms, avoided risk is highest for fluvial flooding, drought, and heat stress, but in absolute terms risk reduction is greatest for drought. Although water stress decreases in some regions, it is often accompanied by additional exposure to flooding. The magnitude of the percentage of damage avoided is similar to that calculated for avoided global economic risk associated with these same climate change scenarios. We also identify West Africa, India and North America as hotspots of climate change risk in the future.</jats:p>
dc.identifier.doi	10.17863/CAM.86025
dc.identifier.eissn	1573-1480
dc.identifier.issn	0165-0009
dc.identifier.other	s10584-021-03277-9
dc.identifier.other	3277
dc.identifier.uri	https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/338612
dc.language	en
dc.publisher	Springer Science and Business Media LLC
dc.subject	Article
dc.subject	Climate change
dc.subject	Mitigation
dc.subject	Paris Agreement
dc.subject	Avoided impacts
dc.subject	Economic damages
dc.subject	Fluvial flooding
dc.subject	Hotspots
dc.title	Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels
dc.type	Article
dcterms.dateAccepted	2021-11-21
prism.issueIdentifier	3-4
prism.publicationName	Climatic Change
prism.volume	172
rioxxterms.licenseref.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
rioxxterms.version	VoR
rioxxterms.versionofrecord	10.1007/s10584-021-03277-9

Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels

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