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Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence.

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

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Type

Article

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Abstract

Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is crucial to pandemic control yet difficult to achieve because they arise in the context of variable human behavior and immunity. We investigated the spatial invasion dynamics of lineage B.1.1.7 by jointly analyzing UK human mobility, virus genomes, and community-based polymerase chain reaction data. We identified a multistage spatial invasion process in which early B.1.1.7 growth rates were associated with mobility and asymmetric lineage export from a dominant source location, enhancing the effects of B.1.1.7's increased intrinsic transmissibility. We further explored how B.1.1.7 spread was shaped by nonpharmaceutical interventions and spatial variation in previous attack rates. Our findings show that careful accounting of the behavioral and epidemiological context within which variants of concern emerge is necessary to interpret correctly their observed relative growth rates.

Description

Keywords

COVID-19, COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing, Communicable Disease Control, Genome, Viral, Humans, Incidence, Phylogeography, SARS-CoV-2, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, Travel, United Kingdom

Journal Title

Science

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0036-8075
1095-9203

Volume Title

373

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Rights

All rights reserved
Sponsorship
MRC (MC_PC_19027)
UK Research and Innovation (MC_PC_19027)
COG-UK is supported by funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC) part of UK Research & Innovation (UKRI), the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute.