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Modelling hepatitis C infection acquired from blood transfusions in the UK between 1970 and 1991 for the Infected Blood Inquiry

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jats:pThe Statistics Expert Group was convened at the request of the Infected Blood Inquiry to provide estimates of the number of infections and deaths from blood-borne infections including hepatitis B virus, human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis C virus (HCV) and variant Creutzfeldt Jakob disease, as a direct result of contaminated blood and blood products administered in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK). In the absence of databases of HCV infections and related deaths for all nations of the UK, a statistical model was required to estimate the number of infections and subsequent deaths from HCV acquired from blood transfusions from January 1970 to August 1991. We present this statistical model in detail alongside the results of its application to each of the four nations in the UK. We estimated that 26 800 people (95% uncertainty interval 21 300–38 800) throughout the UK were chronically infected with HCV because of contaminated blood transfusions between January 1970 and August 1991. The number of deaths up to the end of 2019 that occurred as a result of this chronic infection is estimated to be 1820 (95% uncertainty interval 650–3320).</jats:p>


Peer reviewed: True

Publication status: Published

Funder: Infected Blood Inquiry

Funder: National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit; FundRef:

Funder: MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

Funder: MRC Biostatistics Unit


3207 Medical Microbiology, 32 Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Hepatitis - C, Digestive Diseases, Liver Disease, Infectious Diseases, Chronic Liver Disease and Cirrhosis, Hepatitis, Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2.2 Factors relating to the physical environment, 2 Aetiology, Infection, 3 Good Health and Well Being

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Royal Society Open Science

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The Royal Society