Nowcasting COVID-19 deaths in England by age and region.

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Seaman, Shaun R 
Samartsidis, Pantelis 
Kall, Meaghan 
De Angelis, Daniela  ORCID logo

Understanding the trajectory of the daily number of COVID-19 deaths is essential to decisions on how to respond to the pandemic, but estimating this trajectory is complicated by the delay between deaths occurring and being reported. In England the delay is typically several days, but it can be weeks. This causes considerable uncertainty about how many deaths occurred in recent days. Here we estimate the deaths per day in five age strata within seven English regions, using a Bayesian model that accounts for reporting-day effects and longer-term changes in the delay distribution. We show how the model can be computationally efficiently fitted when the delay distribution is the same in multiple strata, for example, over a wide range of ages.

epidemic monitoring, generalised Dirichlet, reporting delay, right‐truncation
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J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat
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Royal Statistical Society
National Institute for Health Research (IS-BRC-1215-20014)