Validation of The 4C Deterioration Model for COVID-19 in a UK Teaching Hospital During Wave 2.

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Cowan, Sarah L 
Wiegand, Martin 
Preller, Jacobus 
Goudie, Robert JB 

jats:titleAbstract</jats:title>jats:pThe 4C Deterioration model was developed and validated on data collected in UK hospitals until August 26, 2020, but has not yet been validated in the presence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and novel treatment regimens that have emerged subsequently. In this first validation study of the 4C Deterioration model on patients admitted between August 27, 2020 and April 16, 2021 we found, despite a slightly overestimation of risk, that the discrimination (area under the curve 0.75, 95% CI 0.71-0.78) and calibration of the model remained consistent with the development study, strengthening the evidence for adopting this model into clinical practice.</jats:p>

COVID-19, Hospital Mortality, Hospitals, Teaching, Humans, United Kingdom
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Am J Med Sci
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Elsevier BV
National Institute for Health and Care Research (IS-BRC-1215-20014)
MRC (unknown)
Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (CUH) (BRC)
Martin Wiegand was funded by the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre (BRC-1215-20014). Robert J. B. Goudie was funded by the UKRI Medical Research Council [programme code MC_UU_00002/2] and supported by the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre (BRC-1215-20014). The Clinical Informatics data extraction was funded by the Cancer Research UK Cambridge Centre and conducted by Vince Taylor. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.