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Understanding of prognosis in non-metastatic prostate cancer: a randomised comparative study of clinician estimates measured against the PREDICT prostate prognostic model

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Thurtle, David R. 
Pharoah, Paul D. 
Gnanapragasam, Vincent J. 


Abstract: PREDICT Prostate is an individualised prognostic model that provides long-term survival estimates for men diagnosed with non-metastatic prostate cancer ( In this study clinician estimates of survival were compared against model predictions and its potential value as a clinical tool was assessed. Prostate cancer (PCa) specialists were invited to participate in the study. 190 clinicians (63% urologists, 17% oncologists, 20% other) were randomised into two groups and shown 12 clinical vignettes through an online portal. Each group viewed opposing vignettes with clinical information alone, or alongside PREDICT Prostate estimates. 15-year clinician survival estimates were compared against model predictions and reported treatment recommendations with and without seeing PREDICT estimates were compared. 155 respondents (81.6%) reported counselling new PCa patients at least weekly. Clinician estimates of PCa-specific mortality exceeded PREDICT estimates in 10/12 vignettes. Their estimates for treatment survival benefit at 15 years were over-optimistic in every vignette, with mean clinician estimates more than 5-fold higher than PREDICT Prostate estimates. Concomitantly seeing PREDICT Prostate estimates led to significantly lower reported likelihoods of recommending radical treatment in 7/12 (58%) vignettes, particularly in older patients. These data suggest clinicians overestimate cancer-related mortality and radical treatment benefit. Using an individualised prognostic tool may help reduce overtreatment.



Brief Communication, /692/4028/67/589/466, /692/4028/546, /692/700/1750/2094, brief-communication

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British Journal of Cancer

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Nature Publishing Group UK