Italexit, is it another Brexit?

Change log
Fingleton, Bernard 

Abstract: This paper estimates the possible job-shortfall across Italian and EU regions using a time–space dynamic panel data model with a spatial moving average random effects structure of the disturbances. The paper is a companion paper to an earlier prediction exercise regarding Brexit. The model includes spatial and temporal dependencies involving the endogenous variable, leading to estimates based on a new dynamic spatial generalized moments estimator proposed by Baltagi et al. (Reg Sci Urban Econ, 2018. 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2018.04.013). The predictions use modified interregional trade estimates, assuming a reduction in trade flows between Italian and EU regions due to Italexit, to simulate the impact on employment across Italian regions and the wider EU. Comparisons are made between Italexit and Brexit.

Original Article, Italexit, Brexit, Interregional trade, Panel data, Spatial lag, Spatio-temporal lag, Dynamic, Spatial moving average, Prediction, Simulation, C23, C33, C53, E27, F10, J21, R12
Journal Title
Journal of Geographical Systems
Conference Name
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Springer Berlin Heidelberg