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A coupled component DCS-EGARCH model for intraday and overnight volatility

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

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Authors

Linton, Oliver B 
Wu, Jianbin 

Abstract

We propose a semi-parametric coupled component exponential GARCH model for intraday and overnight returns that allows the two series to have different dynamical properties. We adopt a dynamic conditional score model with t-distributed innovations that captures the very heavy tails of overnight returns. We propose a several-step estimation procedure that captures the nonparametric slowly moving components by kernel estimation and the dynamic parameters by maximum likelihood. We establish the consistency, asymptotic normality, and semiparametric efficiency of our semiparametric estimation procedures. We extend the modelling to the multivariate case where we allow time varying correlation between stocks. We apply our model to the study of Dow Jones industrial average component stocks and CRSP size-based portfolios over the period 1993–2017. We show that the ratio of overnight to intraday volatility has actually increased in importance for Dow Jones stocks during the last two decades. This ratio has also increased for large stocks in the CRSP database, but decreased for small stocks in CRSP.

Description

Keywords

3801 Applied Economics, 3802 Econometrics, 35 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services, 38 Economics, 3502 Banking, Finance and Investment, 4905 Statistics, 49 Mathematical Sciences

Journal Title

Journal of Econometrics

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0304-4076
1556-5068

Volume Title

Publisher

Elsevier