A Simulation Model and Dashboard for Predicting Covid-19 Bed Requirements

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Chan, Yin-Chi 
Dreesbeimdiek, Kaya 
Matheson, Nicholas 
Warne, Ben 

The Covid-19 pandemic has placed extraordinary amounts of stress upon public hospitals globally. This paper describes a simulation model for estimating hospital bed demand based on generated scenarios. Statistical tools were also developed for generating these scenarios, in particular, for fitting distributions to patients’ lengths-of-stay and for predicting the number of daily arrivals of Covid-19 patients. A web dashboard has been created for ease of use. The simulation model and statistical tools have been used to estimate Covid-related bed demand at an NHS hospital in the East of England.

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Winter Simulation Conference 2023
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Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (CUH) (Unknown)
Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (CUH) (000087572)
NJM was supported by the UKRI Medical Research Council (TSF ref. MR/T032413/1) and NHS Blood and Transplant (grant ref. WP15-02).