Contributors to Organ Damage in Childhood Lupus: Corticosteroid Use and Disease Activity.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Awareness of paediatric-specific predictors of damage in Childhood-lupus is needed to inform mitigation measures. OBJECTIVES: To ascertain how clinical and demographic variables correlate with damage accrual and identify predictors of damage. METHODS: Analysis included UK JSLE Cohort Study participants. Univariable and multivariable Prentice-Williams-Peterson models investigated how demographic and clinical factors influenced hazards of new damage. Analyses were performed across the entire cohort, in patients with minimal disease activity marked by a time-adjusted average SLEDAI-2K score (AMS)≤2, low activity (AMS ≤ 4), moderate-high activity (AMS > 4) and those with no corticosteroids. RESULTS: Within the entire cohort (n = 430), factors associated with damage included: any methylprednisolone (Hazard Ratio, HR 2.20, [CI 1.33-3.62]), time-adjusted mean Physicians Global Assessment (PGA) (HR 2.87, [CI 1.48-5.56]) and AMS score (HR 1.13, [CI 1.03-1.24], all p< 0.05). Within the low activity subgroup, any methylprednisolone (HR 2.61, [CI 1.04-6.53]) and time-adjusted mean PGA (HR 3.41, [CI 1.52-7.76]) were associated with damage (both p< 0.05). Within the moderate-high activity subgroup, any methylprednisolone (HR 2.29, [CI 1.31-4.00]), time-adjusted mean PGA (HR 2.66, [CI 1.20-5.87]) and AMS score (HR 1.15, [CI 1.03-1.29]), were predictive of damage (all p< 0.05). Baseline organ damage was predictive of subsequent damage accrual in the minimal activity (HR 1.33, CI [1.78-8.08]) and no corticosteroids subgroups (HR 3.64, CI [1.83-7.24], both p< 0.005). CONCLUSION: Disease activity levels (AMS/PGA) and proxy indicators (methylprednisolone exposure, baseline damage) were found to be key predictors of damage accrual. This highlights the importance of practical strategies, to reduce disease activity and long-term treatment toxicity, such as treat-to-target.