Tree-Ring Chronologies from the Upper Treeline in the Russian Altai Mountains Reveal Strong and Stable Summer Temperature Signals

Abstract

Radial tree growth at high-elevation and high-latitude sites is predominantly controlled by changes in summer temperature. This relationship is, however, expected to weaken under projected global warming, which questions the reliability of tree-ring chronologies for climate reconstructions. Here, we examined the growth–climate response patterns of five tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies of larch (Larix sibirica) from upper-treeline ecotones in the Altai Mountains, which is a key region for developing millennial-long dendroclimatic records in inner Eurasia. The TRW and MXD chronologies exhibited significant year-to-year coherency within and between the two parameters (p < 0.001). While TRW is mostly influenced by temperature changes during the first half of the growing season from June to July (r = 0.66), MXD is most strongly correlated with May–August temperatures (r = 0.73). All seasonal temperature signals are statistically significant at the 99% confidence level, temporally stable back to 1940 CE, the period with reliable instrumental measurements, and spatially representative for a vast area of inner Eurasia between northeastern Kazakhstan in the west, northern Mongolia in the east, southern Russia in the north and northwestern China in the south. Our findings demonstrate the paleoclimatic potential of TRW and especially MXD chronologies and reject any sign of the ´divergence problem´ at these high-elevation, mid-latitude larch sites.