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SARS-CoV-2 transmission across age groups in France and implications for control.

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cam.issuedOnline2021-11-25
dc.contributor.authorTran Kiem, Cécile
dc.contributor.authorBosetti, Paolo
dc.contributor.authorPaireau, Juliette
dc.contributor.authorCrépey, Pascal
dc.contributor.authorSalje, Henrik
dc.contributor.authorLefrancq, Noémie
dc.contributor.authorFontanet, Arnaud
dc.contributor.authorBenamouzig, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorBoëlle, Pierre-Yves
dc.contributor.authorDesenclos, Jean-Claude
dc.contributor.authorOpatowski, Lulla
dc.contributor.authorCauchemez, Simon
dc.contributor.orcidTran Kiem, Cécile [0000-0003-0563-8428]
dc.contributor.orcidPaireau, Juliette [0000-0002-5143-6256]
dc.contributor.orcidCrépey, Pascal [0000-0003-1852-0752]
dc.contributor.orcidSalje, Henrik [0000-0003-3626-4254]
dc.contributor.orcidLefrancq, Noémie [0000-0001-5991-6169]
dc.contributor.orcidDesenclos, Jean-Claude [0000-0003-0892-8252]
dc.contributor.orcidCauchemez, Simon [0000-0001-9186-4549]
dc.date.accessioned2022-01-07T17:56:05Z
dc.date.available2022-01-07T17:56:05Z
dc.date.issued2021-11-25
dc.date.updated2022-01-07T17:56:04Z
dc.description.abstractThe shielding of older individuals has been proposed to limit COVID-19 hospitalizations while relaxing general social distancing in the absence of vaccines. Evaluating such approaches requires a deep understanding of transmission dynamics across ages. Here, we use detailed age-specific case and hospitalization data to model the rebound in the French epidemic in summer 2020, characterize age-specific transmission dynamics and critically evaluate different age-targeted intervention measures in the absence of vaccines. We find that while the rebound started in young adults, it reached individuals aged ≥80 y.o. after 4 weeks, despite substantial contact reductions, indicating substantial transmission flows across ages. We derive the contribution of each age group to transmission. While shielding older individuals reduces mortality, it is insufficient to allow major relaxations of social distancing. When the epidemic remains manageable (R close to 1), targeting those most contributing to transmission is better than shielding at-risk individuals. Pandemic control requires an effort from all age groups.
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.79889
dc.identifier.eissn2041-1723
dc.identifier.issn2041-1723
dc.identifier.otherPMC8617041
dc.identifier.other34824245
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/332443
dc.languageeng
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLC
dc.publisher.urlhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27163-1
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.sourceessn: 2041-1723
dc.sourcenlmid: 101528555
dc.subjectAdolescent
dc.subjectAdult
dc.subjectAge Factors
dc.subjectAged
dc.subjectAged, 80 and over
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectCOVID-19 Vaccines
dc.subjectChild
dc.subjectChild, Preschool
dc.subjectComputer Simulation
dc.subjectFemale
dc.subjectFrance
dc.subjectHospitalization
dc.subjectHumans
dc.subjectInfant
dc.subjectInfant, Newborn
dc.subjectMale
dc.subjectMiddle Aged
dc.subjectPandemics
dc.subjectPhysical Distancing
dc.subjectSARS-CoV-2
dc.subjectYoung Adult
dc.titleSARS-CoV-2 transmission across age groups in France and implications for control.
dc.typeArticle
dcterms.dateAccepted2021-10-28
prism.issueIdentifier1
prism.publicationNameNat Commun
prism.volume12
pubs.funder-project-idEC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020) (874735, 101003589)
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1038/s41467-021-27163-1

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