Exchange rates and sovereign risk


Type
Article
Change log
Authors
Della Corte, P 
Schmeling, M 
Wagner, C 
Abstract

An increase in a country's sovereign risk, as measured by credit default swap spreads, is accompanied by a contemporaneous depreciation of its currency and an increase of its volatility. The relation between currency excess returns and sovereign risk is mainly driven by default expectations (rather than distress risk premia) and exposure to global sovereign risk shocks, and also emerges in a predictive setting for currency risk premia. We show that a sovereign risk factor is priced in the cross-section of currency returns and that it is not subsumed by the carry factor.

Description
Keywords
Journal Title
Management Science
Conference Name
Journal ISSN
0025-1909
Volume Title
Publisher
Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences
Rights
All rights reserved
Sponsorship
Christian Wagner acknowledges support from the Center for Financial Frictions (FRIC), grant no. DNRF102