Multiple change point detection and validation in autoregressive time series data


Change log
Authors
Ma, Lijing 
Grant, Andrew J. 
Sofronov, Georgy 
Abstract

Abstract: It is quite common that the structure of a time series changes abruptly. Identifying these change points and describing the model structure in the segments between these change points is of interest. In this paper, time series data is modelled assuming each segment is an autoregressive time series with possibly different autoregressive parameters. This is achieved using two main steps. The first step is to use a likelihood ratio scan based estimation technique to identify these potential change points to segment the time series. Once these potential change points are identified, modified parametric spectral discrimination tests are used to validate the proposed segments. A numerical study is conducted to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method across various scenarios and compared against other contemporary techniques.

Description
Keywords
Regular Article, Changepoint detection, Autoregressive time series, Likelihood ratio scan statistics, Multiple testing problems
Journal Title
Statistical Papers
Conference Name
Journal ISSN
0932-5026
1613-9798
Volume Title
61
Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Sponsorship
Sir Henry Dale Fellowship jointly funded by the Welcome Trust and the Royal Society (204623/Z/16/Z)