This research used a survey to investigate how Chemistry, English Literature and Psychology teachers go about the process of estimating their students' A level grades. There are a variety of different sources of information available to help teachers, including statistically based predictions (e.g., ALIS), performance in previous assessments (e.g., GCSEs) or in-class assessments, and their own judgements of students' motivation, interest and resilience. Teachers were also asked to provide grade estimates for their current A level students and these were then compared with actual grades to provide an indication of accuracy. Follow up interviews were undertaken to elicit more detail about the process of making estimates, and to ask teachers about specific students who either under or over-performed compared to their estimate.

The results will be discussed in the context of recent reforms to A levels (e.g., de-coupling of AS levels), which are likely to have had an impact on how teachers make their estimates and how accurate they are.