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Analyzing seasonality of tuberculosis across Indian states and union territories.

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

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Authors

Narula, Pankaj 
Sihota, Praveer 
Azad, Sarita 

Abstract

A significant seasonal variation in tuberculosis (TB) is observed in north India during 2006-2011, particularly in states like Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan. To quantify the seasonal variation, we measure average amplitude (peak to trough distance) across seasons in smear positive cases of TB and observe that it is maximum for Himachal Pradesh (40.01%) and minimum for Maharashtra (3.87%). In north India, smear positive cases peak in second quarter (April-June) and reach a trough in fourth quarter (October-December), however low seasonal variation is observed in southern region of the country. The significant correlations as 0.64 (p-value<0.001), 0.54 (p-value<0.01) and 0.42 (p-value<0.05) are observed between minimum temperature and seasonality of TB at lag-1 in north, central and northeast India respectively. However, in south India, this correlation is not significant.

Description

Keywords

Poisson regression, Seasonality, Smear positive cases, Temperature, Tuberculosis, Humans, India, Poisson Distribution, Regression Analysis, Seasons, Tuberculosis

Journal Title

J Epidemiol Glob Health

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

2210-6006
2210-6014

Volume Title

5

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC