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Integration of population-level data sources into an individual-level clinical prediction model for dengue virus test positivity

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Repository DOI


Type

Article

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Authors

Abstract

The differentiation of dengue virus (DENV) infection, a major cause of acute febrile illness in tropical regions, from other etiologies, may help prioritize laboratory testing and limit the inappropriate use of antibiotics. While traditional clinical prediction models focus on individual patient-level parameters, we hypothesize that for infectious diseases, population-level data sources may improve predictive ability. To create a clinical prediction model that integrates patient-extrinsic data for identifying DENV among febrile patients presenting to a hospital in Thailand, we fit random forest classifiers combining clinical data with climate and population-level epidemiologic data. In cross validation, compared to a parsimonious model with the top clinical predictors, a model with the addition of climate data, reconstructed susceptibility estimates, force of infection estimates, and a recent case clustering metric, significantly improved model performance

Description

Keywords

Humans, Dengue Virus, Dengue, Models, Statistical, Prognosis, Climate, Fever

Journal Title

Science Advances

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

2375-2548
2375-2548

Volume Title

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science
Sponsorship
European Commission Horizon 2020 (H2020) ERC (804744)
National Institutes of Health (NIH) (via Johns Hopkins University) (R01AI160780 - 2005545874)
United States National Institutes of Health under award number, the Military Infectious Disease Research Program (MIDRP), and the European Research Council.

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2*
2024-04-19 12:13:47
Published version added
2024-02-29 00:31:00
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