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Do Antibody Positive Healthcare Workers Have Lower SARS-CoV-2 Infection Rates than Antibody Negative Healthcare Workers? Large Multi-Centre Prospective Cohort Study (The SIREN Study), England: June to November 2020

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Hall, Victoria Jane 
Foulkes, Sarah 
Charlett, Andre 
Atti, Ana 
Monk, Edward JM 

Abstract

Background: There is an urgent need to better understand whether individuals who have recovered from COVID-19 are protected from future SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Methods: A large multi-centre prospective cohort was recruited from publicly funded hospital staff in the UK. Participants attended regular SARS-CoV-2 PCR and antibody testing (every 2-4 weeks) and completed fortnightly questionnaires on symptoms and exposures. At enrolment, participants were assigned to either the positive cohort (antibody positive or prior PCR/antibody test positive) or negative cohort (antibody negative, not previously known to be PCR/antibody positive). Potential reinfections were clinically reviewed and classified according to case definitions (confirmed, probable, possible (subdivided by symptom-status)) depending on hierarchy of evidence. Individuals in the primary infection were excluded from this analysis if infection was confirmed by antibody only. Reinfection rates in the positive cohort were compared against new PCR positives in the negative cohort using a mixed effective multivariable logistic regression analysis.

Findings: Between 18 June and 09 November 2020, 44 reinfections (2 probable, 42 possible) were detected in the baseline positive cohort of 6,614 participants, collectively contributing 1,339,078 days of follow-up. This compares with 318 new PCR positive infections and 94 antibody seroconversions in the negative cohort of 14,173 participants, contributing 1,868,646 days of follow-up. The incidence density per 100,000 person days between June and November 2020 was 3.2 reinfections in the positive cohort, compared with 22.4 new PCR confirmed infections in the negative cohort. The adjusted odds ratio was 0.17 for all reinfections (95% CI 0.13-0.24) compared to PCR confirmed primary infections. The median interval between primary infection and reinfection was over 160 days.

Interpretation: A prior history of SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with an 83% lower risk of infection, with median protective effect observed five months following primary infection. This is the minimum likely effect as seroconversions were not included.

Trial Registration: Trial registered with ISRCTN, Trial ID: ISRCTN11041050. https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN11041050.

Funding Statement: Department of Health and Social Care and Public Health England, with contributions from the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish governments.

Declaration of Interests: No conflicts of interest declared.

Ethics Approval Statement: IRAS ID 284460, Berkshire Research Ethics Committee, Health Research Authority and Health and Care Research Wales approval granted 22 May 2020.

Description

Keywords

Journal Title

The Lancet

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0140-6736
1474-547X

Volume Title

Publisher

Elsevier