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Bayesian Inference for Multiple Datasets

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

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Abstract

jats:pEstimating parameters for multiple datasets can be time consuming, especially when the number of datasets is large. One solution is to sample from multiple datasets simultaneously using Bayesian methods such as adaptive multiple importance sampling (AMIS). Here, we use the AMIS approach to fit a von Mises distribution to multiple datasets for wind trajectories derived from a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model driven from 3D meteorological data. A posterior distribution of parameters can help to characterise the uncertainties in wind trajectories in a form that can be used as inputs for predictive models of wind-dispersed insect pests and the pathogens of agricultural crops for use in evaluating risk and in planning mitigation actions. The novelty of our study is in testing the performance of the method on a very large number of datasets (>11,000). Our results show that AMIS can significantly improve the efficiency of parameter inference for multiple datasets.</jats:p>

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Keywords

41 Environmental Sciences, 4905 Statistics, 49 Mathematical Sciences, 7 Affordable and Clean Energy

Journal Title

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Conference Name

Journal ISSN

2571-905X
2571-905X

Volume Title

Publisher

MDPI AG
Sponsorship
The UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office