Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain
Published version
Peer-reviewed
Repository URI
Repository DOI
Change log
Authors
Lennard, J
Meinecke, F
Solomou, S
Abstract
jats:titleAbstract</jats:title>jats:pWhat caused the recovery from the British Great Depression? A leading explanation – the ‘expectations channel’ – suggests that a shift in expected inflation lowered real interest rates and stimulated consumption and investment. However, few studies have measured, or tested the economic consequences of, inflation expectations. In this paper, we collect high‐frequency information from primary and secondary sources to measure expected inflation in the United Kingdom between the wars. A high‐frequency vector autoregression suggests that inflation expectations were an important source of the early stages of economic recovery in interwar Britain.</jats:p>
Description
Keywords
38 Economics, 3802 Econometrics, 3803 Economic Theory
Journal Title
Economic History Review
Conference Name
Journal ISSN
0013-0117
1468-0289
1468-0289
Volume Title
Publisher
Wiley