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Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain

Published version
Peer-reviewed

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Authors

Lennard, J 
Meinecke, F 
Solomou, S 

Abstract

jats:titleAbstract</jats:title>jats:pWhat caused the recovery from the British Great Depression? A leading explanation – the ‘expectations channel’ – suggests that a shift in expected inflation lowered real interest rates and stimulated consumption and investment. However, few studies have measured, or tested the economic consequences of, inflation expectations. In this paper, we collect high‐frequency information from primary and secondary sources to measure expected inflation in the United Kingdom between the wars. A high‐frequency vector autoregression suggests that inflation expectations were an important source of the early stages of economic recovery in interwar Britain.</jats:p>

Description

Keywords

38 Economics, 3802 Econometrics, 3803 Economic Theory

Journal Title

Economic History Review

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0013-0117
1468-0289

Volume Title

Publisher

Wiley