Brexit and its possible implications for the UK economy and its regions: A post-Keynesian perspective


Type
Article
Change log
Authors
McCombie, JSL 
Spreafico, MRM 
Abstract

This paper discusses the implications of Brexit for both the UK and its regions, as the latter depends on the former. We concentrate on the forecasts by Her Majesty's Treasury (HMT), the Cambridge Centre for Business Research and the Economists for Brexit. It is argued that the estimates of HMT of the loss of GDP are likely to be overstated, but, nevertheless, there will probably be a fall in output. Given this, the effect on the UK regions is analysed using the regional balance-of-payments constrained growth model. This suggests that Brexit will cause regional disparities to widen.

Description
Keywords
balance-of-payments constrained growth model, Brexit, macroeconomic forecasts, North-South divide, UK regions
Journal Title
Papers in Regional Science
Conference Name
Journal ISSN
1056-8190
1435-5957
Volume Title
97
Publisher
Wiley