Incorrect computation of Madden-Julian oscillation prediction skill
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The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is a major tropical weather system and one of the largest sources of predictability for subseasonal-to-seasonal weather forecasts. Skillful prediction of the MJO has been a highly active area of research due to its large socio-economic impacts. Silini et al., herein S21, developed a machine learning model to predict the MJO, which they claimed to have an MJO prediction skill of 26–27 days over all seasons and 45 days for December–February (DJF) winter. If true, this would make the skill of their model competitive with that of the state-of-the-art dynamical MJO prediction systems at 20–35 days. However, here we show that the MJO prediction was calculated incorrectly in S21, which spuriously increased the performance of their model. Correctly computed skill of their model was substantially lower than that reported in S21; the skill for all seasons drops to 11–12 days and the skill for forecasts initialized during DJF drops to 15 days. Our findings clarify that the S21 machine learning model is not competitive with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models in predicting the MJO.
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Acknowledgements: All members of the WGNE MJO Task Force are appreciated for discussion of these results and formulating this response. T.S. was supported by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI grant 21K13991. Z.K.M. was supported by National Science Foundation under Award No. 2020305. This work was also supported, in part, by NOAA grant NA19OAR4590151, NSF Grant AGS-1841754, NOAA Grant NA22OAR4590168, and NOAA Grant NA22OAR4310608. D.K. was supported by New Faculty Startup Fund from Seoul National University. H.K. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant (NRF-RS-2023-00278113).
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National Science Foundation (NSF) (2020305, AGS-1841754)
United States Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (NA22OAR4310608, NA22OAR4590168, NA19OAR4590151)
National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) (NRF-RS-2023-00278113)