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Life expectancy changes since COVID-19.

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Peer-reviewed

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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an unprecedented rise in mortality that translated into life expectancy losses around the world, with only a few exceptions. We estimate life expectancy changes in 29 countries since 2020 (including most of Europe, the United States and Chile), attribute them to mortality changes by age group and compare them with historic life expectancy shocks. Our results show divergence in mortality impacts of the pandemic in 2021. While countries in western Europe experienced bounce backs from life expectancy losses of 2020, eastern Europe and the United States witnessed sustained and substantial life expectancy deficits. Life expectancy deficits during fall/winter 2021 among people ages 60+ and <60 were negatively correlated with measures of vaccination uptake across countries (r60+ = -0.86; two-tailed P < 0.001; 95% confidence interval, -0.94 to -0.69; r<60 = -0.74; two-tailed P < 0.001; 95% confidence interval, -0.88 to -0.46). In contrast to 2020, the age profile of excess mortality in 2021 was younger, with those in under-80 age groups contributing more to life expectancy losses. However, even in 2021, registered COVID-19 deaths continued to account for most life expectancy losses.

Description

Funder: Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 896821 Leverhulme Trust Large Centre Grant University of Oxford John Fell Fund ROCKWOOL Foundation’s Excess Deaths grant


Funder: Estonian Research Council grant PSG 669


Funder: University of Oxford John Fell Fund European Research Council grant ERC-2021-CoG-101002587


Funder: ROCKWOOL Foundation’s Excess Deaths grant


Funder: Leverhulme Trust Large Centre GrantUniversity of Oxford John Fell Fund


Funder: Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 896821Leverhulme Trust Large Centre GrantUniversity of Oxford John Fell Fund

Keywords

Humans, United States, Middle Aged, Pandemics, COVID-19, Life Expectancy, Europe

Journal Title

Nat Hum Behav

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

2397-3374
2397-3374

Volume Title

6

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Sponsorship
Eesti Teadusagentuur (Estonian Research Council) (PSG 669)