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Nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens.

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Lloyd-Smith, James O 
Funk, Sebastian 
McLean, Angela R 
Riley, Steven 
Wood, James LN 


Studying the emergence of novel infectious agents involves many processes spanning host species, spatial scales, and scientific disciplines. Mathematical models play an essential role in combining insights from these investigations and drawing robust inferences from field and experimental data. We describe nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens, emphasizing the interface between models and data.



Cross-species spillover transmission, Emerging infectious diseases, Host jump, Infectious disease dynamics, Zoonosis, Animals, Communicable Diseases, Emerging, Disease Reservoirs, Humans, Models, Statistical, Population Surveillance, Species Specificity, Stochastic Processes, Zoonoses

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Elsevier BV
European Commission (278976)
We acknowledge support from the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) programme of the Science and Technology Directory, Department of Homeland Security, and Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health. JLS was also supported by the National Science Foundation (EF-0928987 and OCE-1335657) and the De Logi Chair in Biological Sciences. SF was supported by a UK Medical Research Council Career Development Award in Biostatistics. SR was supported by: Wellcome Trust Project Award 093488/Z/10/Z; R01 TW008246-01 from Fogarty International Centre; and The Medical Research Council (UK, Project Grant MR/J008761/1). JLNW was also supported by the Alborada Trust and the European Union FP7 project ANTIGONE (contract number 278976).