Currency regimes and the carry trade
Accepted version
Peer-reviewed
Repository URI
Repository DOI
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Authors
Accominotti, O
Cen, J
Chambers, AD
Marsh, IW
Abstract
This study exploits a new long-run data set of daily bid and offered exchange rates in spot and forward markets from 1919 to the present to analyze carry returns in fixed and floating currency regimes. We first find that outsized carry returns occur exclusively in the floating regime, being zero in the fixed regime. Second, we show that fixed-to-floating regime shifts are associated with negative returns to a carry strategy implemented only on floating currencies, robust to the inclusion of volatility risks. These shifts are typically characterized by global flight-to-safety events that represent bad times for carry traders.
Description
Keywords
carry trade, Exchange Rate Regime
Journal Title
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Conference Name
Journal ISSN
1756-6916
1756-6916
1756-6916
Volume Title
54
Publisher
Cambridge University Press
Publisher DOI
Sponsorship
We are indebted to Cambridge University’s Centre for Endowment Asset Management (CEAM), Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance (CERF), and London School of Economics’ Research Infrastructure and Investment Funds (RIIF) for financial support.