Peeking into the Black Box of Offender Decision-Making: A Novel Approach to Testing Situational Action Theory’s Perception Choice Process

Abstract

Situational action theory’s perception-choice process explains how individual traits and setting characteristics interact to produce criminal behavior. Specifically, it identifies the cognitive mechanisms linking causally relevant variables and their interactions to behavior. Testing this model requires data that i) capture who offends in what kind of setting at a certain moment in time, and ii) provide insights into the decision-making process. Yet, most empirical studies meet neither of these criteria. This study utilizes experimental video scenarios and process tracing methods to combine individual differences and (perceived) environmental characteristics with data capturing participants’ decision-making processes. In a sample of UK adults (N = 595), personal morality and perceptions of the moral context predicted whether individuals do not perceive crime as an option, deliberate about engaging in crime, or perceive crime as the only option. Markers of deliberative choice (longer response times, higher decision difficulty, lower decision confidence) provided converging evidence about self-reported deliberations. Further, self-control abilities negatively predicted criminal intention among those who deliberated about deterrents but not among those who were morally conflicted. While many findings support our predictions, some findings were not in agreement with the theory and may inform further theory development.