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Norovirus transmission dynamics: a modelling review.

Published version
Peer-reviewed

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Authors

Gaythorpe, KAM 
Trotter, CL 
Lopman, B 
Steele, M 
Conlan, AJK 

Abstract

Norovirus is one of the leading causes of viral gastroenteritis worldwide and responsible for substantial morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. To further understanding of the epidemiology and control of norovirus, there has been much recent interest in describing the transmission dynamics of norovirus through mathematical models. In this study, we review the current modelling approaches for norovirus transmission. We examine the data and methods used to estimate these models that vary structurally and parametrically between different epidemiological contexts. Many of the existing studies at population level have focused on the same case notification dataset, whereas models from outbreak settings are highly specific and difficult to generalise. In this review, we explore the consistency in the description of norovirus transmission dynamics and the robustness of parameter estimates between studies. In particular, we find that there is considerable variability in estimates of key parameters such as the basic reproduction number, which may mean that the effort required to control norovirus at the population level may currently be underestimated.

Description

Keywords

Basic reproduction number, estimating disease prevalence, mathematical modelling, norovirus, transmission, Caliciviridae Infections, Disease Outbreaks, Gastroenteritis, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Norovirus

Journal Title

Epidemiol Infect

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0950-2688
1469-4409

Volume Title

146

Publisher

Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Sponsorship
Takeda Pharmaceuticals