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Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios.

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Depledge, Joanna 
Gibbins, Goodwin 

Abstract

Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence-together with other global dangers-be usefully synthesized into an "integrated catastrophe assessment"? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.

Description

Keywords

Anthropocene, Earth system trajectories, catastrophic climate change, climate change, tipping elements, Climate Change, Disaster Planning, Forecasting, Humans, Risk Management

Journal Title

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0027-8424
1091-6490

Volume Title

119

Publisher

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Sponsorship
Leverhulme Trust (RPG-2018-046)
National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (32061143014)
National Science Foundation (NSF) (IBSS-1620462, SMA-1637171)
European Research Council (ERC-743080, 743080)
John Templeton Foundation (JTF) (TWCF0128)