Acknowledgements: We thank all colleagues at PHE and front-line health professionals who have not only driven and continue to drive the daily response to the COVID-19 epidemic in England but also provided the necessary data to inform this study. This work would not have been possible without the dedication and expertise of said colleagues and professionals. The use of pillar-2 PCR testing data, vaccination data, and the variant and mutation data was made possible thanks to PHE colleagues, and we extend our thanks to N Gent and A Charlett for facilitation and insights into these data. The use of serological data was made possible by colleagues at PHE Porton Down, Colindale, and the NHS Blood Transfusion Service. We are particularly grateful to G Amirthalingam and N Andrews for helpful discussions around these data. We thank all the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT) Study investigators for sharing PCR prevalence data. We sincerely appreciate Dr. Lloyd Chapman for his thorough review of our preprint manuscript, supplementary materials, and code. His comments and corrections greatly contributed to the completeness, accuracy, and reproducibility of our work. We finally thank the entire Imperial College London COVID-19 response team for support and feedback throughout. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the UK Department of Health and Social Care, the NHS, the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), PHE, UK Medical Research Council (MRC), UK Research and Innovation, or the EU. This work was supported jointly by the Wellcome Trust and the Department for International Development (DFID; 221350). This work was supported by the Medical Research Council (MRC) Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (grant number MR/R015600/1); this award is jointly funded by the MRC and Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) under the MRC/FCDO Concordat agreement, and is also part of the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership programme supported by the EU. This work was also supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Modelling and Health Economics, which is a partnership between the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), Imperial College London, and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (grant code NIHR200908). L.K.W. is funded by the Wellcome Trust (grant number 218669/Z/19/Z). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the UK Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), FCDO, EU, MRC, NIHR, UKHSA, or Wellcome Trust.