Repository logo
 

The environmental and economic effects of international cooperation on restricting fossil fuel supply

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Repository DOI


Change log

Authors

Fragkos, P 
Peterson, L 
Fragkiadakis, K 

Abstract

jats:titleAbstract</jats:title>jats:pAchieving the Paris Agreement’s global temperature goal of keeping warming well below 2 °C and ideally 1.5 °C requires limiting fossil fuel production. In the United Nations climate change negotiations, this need is only beginning to be acknowledged. Nevertheless, as some countries have already adopted supply-side climate policies, initial cooperative activities have started, and calls grow for a fossil fuel treaty, questions arise about the prospects and possible effects of international cooperation on limiting fossil fuel supply. Combining qualitative insights on possible participants in a supply-side coalition with a quantitative analysis based on integrated assessment general equilibrium modelling, this article addresses these questions. Through jats:italick</jats:italic>-means clustering based on fossil reserves per capita, fossil fuel rents and existing supply-side policies, we first identify which (groups of) countries are most likely to lead the formation of an international supply-side coalition, and which (groups of) countries are likely to follow. Drawing on these insights, we develop several scenarios for the evolution of international supply-side coalitions and compare these to a business-as-usual scenario. By doing so, we demonstrate the global and regional environmental, trade and macroeconomic effects of international cooperation on limiting fossil fuel supply and combining fossil supply restrictions with carbon pricing to meet the Paris goals. Our findings underscore the importance of pursuing supply-side and ambitious demand-side climate policies in parallel, and identify the scope and coverage, size of the coalition, and incentives for participation as key design elements for an international supply-side coalition.</jats:p>

Description

Acknowledgements: The authors acknowledge support from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement no. 101003866 (NDC ASPECTS). We thank Ploy Achakulwisut, Michael Lazarus, Wolfgang Obergassel, Roberto Schaeffer, Dirk-Jan van de Ven, and the two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments.

Keywords

4802 Environmental and Resources Law, 48 Law and Legal Studies, 13 Climate Action

Journal Title

International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

1567-9764
1573-1553

Volume Title

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Sponsorship
Directorate-General XII, Science, Research, and Development (101003866)