Understanding Program Complementarities: Estimating the Dynamic Effects of Head Start with Multiple Alternatives

Abstract

We use experimental data from the Head Start Impact Study to examine the effect of sequential participation in childcare programs on cognitive outcomes. Using a sequential threshold model, which accounts for selection beyond initial randomization, we estimate causal returns to program sequences, including joint and cross returns across skill investment programs. We then estimate a dynamic structural model as a juxtaposition and evaluate a counterfactual policy reform which limits individuals to one year of Head Start. Our results support Head Start implementation earlier in life, and support engaging low-ability children with center-based care and high-ability children with some home care.