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Spatial and Temporal Diffusion of House Prices in the UK


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Working Paper

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Authors

Holly, Sean 
Pesaran, M Hashem 
Yamagata, Takashi 

Abstract

In this paper we focus on cycles and trends of some macroeconomic and housing market variables representative of the French economy. In a first part, we empirically show that cycles in the housing sector, measured by housing prices, housing starts, building permits, sales or residential investment, are strongly correlated to GDP cycles with a lead lying between of one and four quarters, suggesting thus that a monitoring of housing fluctuations could bring useful information for macroeconomic forecasting. Interestingly, this result is robust to the various considered approaches. Moreover, it seems that the housing sector long-term trend possesses its own dynamics, quite different from the global French economic activity. Thus, in a second part, we review various structural factors that could drive housing market developments in France in the future.

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Keywords

C210, C230, house prices, cross sectional dependence, spatial dependence

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