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dc.contributor.authorSá, Thiago Hérick de
dc.contributor.authorTainio, Marko
dc.contributor.authorGoodman, Anna
dc.contributor.authorEdwards, Phil
dc.contributor.authorHaines, Andy
dc.contributor.authorGouveia, Nelson
dc.contributor.authorMonteiro, Carlos
dc.contributor.authorWoodcock, James
dc.date.accessioned2017-08-01T08:44:13Z
dc.date.available2017-08-01T08:44:13Z
dc.date.issued2017-11
dc.identifier.issn0160-4120
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/265810
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND: São Paulo city, Brazil, faces challenges caused by rapid urbanization. We illustrate how future travel patterns could lead to different health consequences in the city. METHODS: We evaluated the health impacts of different travel pattern scenarios for the São Paulo adult population by comparing the travel patterns of São Paulo in 2012 with counterfactual scenarios in which the city adopted travel patterns of i) those living in the city's expanded centre; ii) London (2012); iii) a highly motorized São Paulo (SP California); and iv) a visionary São Paulo (SP 2040), with high levels of walking and cycling and low levels of car and motorcycle use. For each scenario we estimated changes in exposure to air pollution, road injury risk, and physical activity. Health outcomes were estimated using disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and premature deaths averted. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify the main sources of uncertainty. RESULTS: We found considerable health gains in the SP 2040 scenario (total 63.6k DALYs avoided), with 4.7% of premature deaths from ischemic heart disease avoided from increases in physical activity alone. Conversely, we found substantial health losses in the scenario favouring private transport (SP California, total increase of 54.9k DALYs), with an increase in road traffic deaths and injuries among pedestrians and motorized vehicles. Parameters related to air pollution had the largest impact on uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: Shifting travel patterns towards more sustainable transport can provide major health benefits in São Paulo. Reducing the uncertainties in the findings should be a priority for empirical and modelling research on the health impacts of such shifts.
dc.format.mediumPrint-Electronic
dc.languageeng
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier BV
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectHumans
dc.subjectAir Pollutants
dc.subjectExercise
dc.subjectWalking
dc.subjectCities
dc.subjectAir Pollution
dc.subjectModels, Biological
dc.subjectTravel
dc.subjectAdult
dc.subjectBrazil
dc.subjectFemale
dc.subjectMale
dc.subjectMortality, Premature
dc.subjectHealth Impact Assessment
dc.titleHealth impact modelling of different travel patterns on physical activity, air pollution and road injuries for São Paulo, Brazil.
dc.typeArticle
prism.endingPage31
prism.publicationDate2017
prism.publicationNameEnviron Int
prism.startingPage22
prism.volume108
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.11843
dcterms.dateAccepted2017-07-13
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1016/j.envint.2017.07.009
rioxxterms.versionAM
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2017-11
dc.contributor.orcidTainio, Marko [0000-0002-0973-2342]
dc.contributor.orcidWoodcock, James [0000-0003-4769-5375]
dc.identifier.eissn1873-6750
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Review
pubs.funder-project-idWellcome Trust (087636/Z/08/Z)
pubs.funder-project-idEconomic and Social Research Council (ES/G007462/1)
pubs.funder-project-idMedical Research Council (MR/K023187/1)
pubs.funder-project-idMedical Research Council (MR/K021796/1)
pubs.funder-project-idMedical Research Council (MR/P024408/1)
cam.orpheus.successThu Jan 30 12:58:22 GMT 2020 - Embargo updated
rioxxterms.freetoread.startdate2018-11-30


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Attribution 4.0 International
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as Attribution 4.0 International