SCORE2-OP risk prediction algorithms: estimating incident cardiovascular event risk in older persons in four geographical risk regions.

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cam.issuedOnline2021-06-13
cam.orpheus.success2021-10-21 - Embargo set during processing via Fast-track
dc.contributor.authorSCORE2-OP working group and ESC Cardiovascular risk collaboration
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-21T23:30:48Z
dc.date.available2021-10-21T23:30:48Z
dc.date.issued2021-07-01
dc.description.abstractAIMS: The aim of this study was to derive and validate the SCORE2-Older Persons (SCORE2-OP) risk model to estimate 5- and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals aged over 70 years in four geographical risk regions. METHODS AND RESULTS: Sex-specific competing risk-adjusted models for estimating CVD risk (CVD mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke) were derived in individuals aged over 65 without pre-existing atherosclerotic CVD from the Cohort of Norway (28 503 individuals, 10 089 CVD events). Models included age, smoking status, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, and total- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Four geographical risk regions were defined based on country-specific CVD mortality rates. Models were recalibrated to each region using region-specific estimated CVD incidence rates and risk factor distributions. For external validation, we analysed data from 6 additional study populations {338 615 individuals, 33 219 CVD validation cohorts, C-indices ranged between 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61-0.65] and 0.67 (0.64-0.69)}. Regional calibration of expected-vs.-observed risks was satisfactory. For given risk factor profiles, there was substantial variation across the four risk regions in the estimated 10-year CVD event risk. CONCLUSIONS: The competing risk-adjusted SCORE2-OP model was derived, recalibrated, and externally validated to estimate 5- and 10-year CVD risk in older adults (aged 70 years or older) in four geographical risk regions. These models can be used for communicating the risk of CVD and potential benefit from risk factor treatment and may facilitate shared decision-making between clinicians and patients in CVD risk management in older persons.
dc.format.mediumPrint
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.77151
dc.identifier.eissn1522-9645
dc.identifier.issn0195-668X
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/329740
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherOxford University Press (OUP)
dc.publisher.urlhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehab312
dc.rightsAll rights reserved
dc.rights.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved
dc.subject10-Year CVD risk
dc.subjectCardiovascular disease
dc.subjectOlder persons
dc.subjectPrimary prevention
dc.subjectRisk assessment
dc.subjectRisk prediction
dc.subjectAged
dc.subjectAged, 80 and over
dc.subjectAlgorithms
dc.subjectBlood Pressure
dc.subjectCardiovascular Diseases
dc.subjectFemale
dc.subjectHumans
dc.subjectMale
dc.subjectMyocardial Infarction
dc.subjectRisk Assessment
dc.subjectRisk Factors
dc.subjectStroke
dc.titleSCORE2-OP risk prediction algorithms: estimating incident cardiovascular event risk in older persons in four geographical risk regions.
dc.typeArticle
dcterms.dateAccepted2021-05-07
prism.endingPage2467
prism.issueIdentifier25
prism.publicationDate2021
prism.publicationNameEur Heart J
prism.startingPage2455
prism.volume42
pubs.funder-project-idBritish Heart Foundation (RG/18/13/33946)
pubs.funder-project-idMedical Research Council (MR/L003120/1)
pubs.funder-project-idCambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (CUH) (unknown)
pubs.funder-project-idBritish Heart Foundation (CH/12/2/29428)
pubs.funder-project-idBritish Heart Foundation (None)
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2021-07
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Review
rioxxterms.versionAM
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1093/eurheartj/ehab312
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