The Window of Opportunity in Sustainability Transitions: An empirical investigation

Abstract

To mitigate the worst impacts of climate change, a rapid and deep reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is required, yet progress remains slow. Electrochemical technologies, combined with low-cost renewable electricity, offer a promising solution for segments of the chemical industry; however, the deployment of electrochemical technologies remains elusive. This thesis aims to understand how actors can accelerate transitions to more sustainable, low- carbon-emitting electrochemical technologies for a segment of the chemical industry. The multi-level perspective (MLP) is the principal theory in sustainability transitions research (STR) that explains how technology transitions occur. The MLP posits that lock-in mechanisms between elements of a socio-technical system create barriers to novel technologies. However, landscape events can create upheavals and tensions that weaken linkages and destabilise the system, resulting in a ‘window of opportunity’ to accelerate a transition to a novel technology. Yet, the window of opportunity remains undefined, limiting the MLP’s usefulness in guiding actors in the acceleration of transitions. This research conducts a comparative analysis of four historical case studies that reflected on the window of opportunity and three real-world, contemporary case studies on the potential to transition the United States system of ammonia production and usage to electrochemical technology powered by wind. The analysis identified novel insights, firstly showing that actors took action based on a durable set of circumstances to exploit an opportunity for gain, defined by value exchanges based on a lasting value proposition. Secondly, the research suggests that actors may be able to accelerate transitions by focusing on the lasting value proposition associated with the window of opportunity. Furthermore, linking the window of opportunity with the exchange paradigm, an economic theory that explains real-world economic activities, and the value mapping tool, a management tool that addresses how firms might include sustainability in their business model, is argued to form the basis of a forward- looking mechanism, thereby moving STR research beyond historical lessons.