Critical minerals in the UK: Insights from the analysis of 10 net zero pathways

Abstract

The 2025 UK Critical Mineral Strategy [1] sets out new targets to grow domestic critical mineral extraction and recycling capacity, and diversify supply chains, to support UK manufacturing. However, manufacturing is not the only way minerals enter the UK, the UK also imports significant quantities of critical minerals embodied in end use technologies (like electric vehicles). Ensuring mineral supply for manufacturing, and imports, is important for decarbonisation and economic growth. Net zero pathways offer one way to gain insight into the combined future demand, detailing which technologies will be required and when. Translating these pathways into material requirements allows for informed strategic planning and policymaking. Below, we set out insights and policy recommendations to support the UK Critical Mineral Strategy. Given the lack of domestic mineral reserves, the recommendations focus on delivering supply through recycling. Our analysis suggests 2035 mineral recycling targets are unlikely to be met (due to limited end of life technology), however, by 2050, recycling could meet the majority of the UK’s total demand for minerals. To deliver this, and ensure long term economic and energy security, the UK needs to invest in growing the battery recycling sector. One way to do this is a critical mineral stockpile, filled via strategic offtake agreements with critical mineral recycling that takes place in the UK. This needs to be accompanied by wider investments in manufacturing to ensure there is domestic demand for recycled materials. This includes investment and support for intermediate products in clean energy supply chains, for example battery component manufacturing which recycled critical minerals feed directly into.