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Essays on Medium-Term Economic Cycles and Real-Financial Linkages



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Chen, Xiaohua 


My PhD research studies medium-term economic cycles and real-financial linkages over the medium term under the supervision of Professor Solomos Solomou.

The first paper (‘National and International Medium-term Economic Fluctuations since c.1870’) uses wavelet analysis to examine the time-profile of medium-term fluctuations using GDP and GDP per capita for 30 developed and developing countries since c.1870.

The second paper (‘Endogenous Growth and the Financial Accelerator over Medium-term Business Cycles’) studies the mechanism of medium-term cycles in real economy and financial sector, with the structure model.

The third paper (‘The Effects of Systemic Banking Crises’) is written with Dr. Bruno Rocha (University of Lisbon) and my supervisor Professor Solomos Solomou (University of Cambridge). We examine the medium-term effects of systemic banking crises on macroeconomy using a data set for a panel of 161 countries for the period 1970-2020, using the linear and non-linear local projection methods to estimate the impulse-response function.

The last paper is a joint project with Dr. Nelson Sobrinho (International Monetary Fund). We produce an IMF working paper (‘A Framework for Assessing Low-Income Countries’ Capacity to Repay the IMF’). It is empirical research on the topics of real-financial linkages. Preserving low-income countries (LICs)’ ability to service their debt obligations including to the IMF is key for their continued access to concessional financing and development.





Solomou, Solomos


Medium-term Cycles, Real-Financial Linkages, Endogenous Growth, Financial Accelerator, Banking crises


Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Awarding Institution

University of Cambridge