Understanding ECE Policies, Access to, and Learning Outcomes from ECE among Refugees and Nationals in Uganda: A Cross-Cohort Comparison

Abstract

This thesis examines disparities in access to early childhood education (ECE) and associated learning outcomes among refugee and national children in Uganda. Situated within a context of high refugee inflows and limited public investment in ECE, the study employs a mixed-methods approach combining policy analysis with quantitative techniques to examine how national policy frameworks, socio-economic determinants, and global interventions interact to shape patterns of access and educational outcomes. The findings reveal that, despite Uganda’s progressive policy commitments to inclusive education broadly, two distinct models of ECE provision have emerged: a market-driven system primarily serving wealthier Ugandan nationals and a humanitarian model that facilitates access for refugee children through donor-funded, non-state provision. Notably, 47% of refugee children accessed ECE compared to 26% of national children, reflecting significant socio-economic disparities in access. Among nationals, ECE participation is closely associated with household wealth, urban residence, and maternal education, while refugee access is less determined by income but shaped by location within humanitarian support structures. Children who attended ECE consistently demonstrated higher learning outcomes than those who did not. However, the benefits of ECE were greater for national children, likely reflecting differential exposure to higher-quality, fee-paying provision. Overall, children performed better in mathematics than in English, although learning gains tended to decline over time, raising concerns about educational continuity and quality beyond the early years. This study makes an original contribution to knowledge by generating new empirical evidence on the dynamics of ECE access and outcomes within Uganda’s inclusive but non-compulsory policy framework. It challenges assumptions that refugee populations are universally disadvantaged in educational access, showing that humanitarian provision can temporarily offset socio-economic barriers. At the same time, it highlights that gains in access for refugee children do not translate equally into improved learning outcomes, exposing enduring structural inequalities in provision quality. Finally, this thesis makes an original contribution to knowledge in three key areas. First, it provides new empirical evidence on differentiated pathways of access to ECE in Uganda, shaped by a dual provision model: a market-driven system for nationals and a humanitarian-supported model for refugees. Second, it demonstrates that while participation in ECE is positively associated with higher learning outcomes for both nationals and refugees, these benefits are unequally distributed, reflecting disparities in the quality of provision. Third, the thesis advances theoretical debates on globalisation, education policy, and equity by examining how global agendas, national policy frameworks, and non-state actors interact to shape ECE provision in Uganda. The study argues for context-responsive policy approaches that address structural inequalities and ensure quality provision for all children, particularly in low-resource, displacement-affected settings like Uganda.