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dc.contributor.authorMayaud, Jerome Ren
dc.contributor.authorBanwell, Alisonen
dc.contributor.authorArnold, Neilen
dc.contributor.authorWillis, Ianen
dc.date.accessioned2015-01-26T12:40:51Z
dc.date.available2015-01-26T12:40:51Z
dc.date.issued2015-01-22en
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Geographical Research Earth Surface 119, 2619–2634, doi: 10.1002/2014JF003271.en
dc.identifier.issn2169-9003
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/246600
dc.description.abstractAlthough the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate, much uncertainty remains about how surface runoff interacts with the subglacial drainage system and affects water pressures and ice velocities, both currently, and into the future. Here, we apply a physically-based, subglacial hydrological model to the Paakitsoq region, west Greenland, and run it into the future to calculate patterns of daily subglacial water pressure fluctuations in response to climatic warming. The model is driven with moulin input hydrographs calculated by a surface routing model, forced with distributed runoff. Surface runoff and routing are simulated for a baseline year (2000), before the model is forced with future climate scenarios for the years 2025, 2050 and 2095, based on the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our results show that as runoff increases throughout the 21st century, and/or as RCP scenarios become more extreme, the subglacial drainage system makes an earlier transition from a less efficient network operating at high water pressures, to a more efficient network with lower pressures. This will likely cause an overall decrease in ice velocities for marginal areas of the GrIS. However, short-term variations in runoff, and therefore subglacial pressure, can still cause localized speedups, even after the system has become more efficient. If these short-term pressure fluctuations become more pronounced as future runoff increases, the associated late-season speedups may help to compensate for the drop in overall summer velocities, associated with earlier transitioning from a high to a low pressure system.
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was funded by a Derek Brewer MPhil Studentship (Emmanuel College, Cambridge) awarded to J.R.M, a UK Natural Environment Research Council Doctoral Training Grant to A.F.B. (LCAG/133) (CASE Studentship with the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS)), and a Bowring Junior Research Fellowship (St Catharine’s College, Cambridge), also to A.F.B.
dc.languageEnglishen
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherWiley on behalf of the American Geophysical Union
dc.subjectGreenlanden
dc.subjecthydrologyen
dc.subjectmodelingen
dc.titleModeling the response of subglacial drainage at Paakitsoq, West Greenland, to 21st century climate changeen
dc.typeArticle
dc.description.versionThis is the accepted manuscript. An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2015 American Geophysical Union.en
prism.endingPage2634
prism.publicationDate2015en
prism.publicationNameJournal of Geophysical Research Earth Surfaceen
prism.startingPage2619
prism.volume119en
dc.rioxxterms.funderNERC
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1002/2014JF003271en
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserveden
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2015-01-22en
dc.contributor.orcidBanwell, Alison [0000-0001-9545-829X]
dc.contributor.orcidArnold, Neil [0000-0001-7538-3999]
dc.contributor.orcidWillis, Ian [0000-0002-0750-7088]
dc.identifier.eissn2169-9011
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen
rioxxterms.freetoread.startdate2015-06-16


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