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dc.contributor.authorBirrell, Paulen
dc.contributor.authorZhang, X-Sen
dc.contributor.authorPebody, RGen
dc.contributor.authorGay, NJen
dc.contributor.authorDe Angelis, Danielaen
dc.date.accessioned2017-04-20T10:10:37Z
dc.date.available2017-04-20T10:10:37Z
dc.date.issued2016-07-11en
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/263711
dc.description.abstractUnderstanding how the geographic distribution of and movements within a population influence the spatial spread of infections is crucial for the design of interventions to curb transmission. Existing knowledge is typically based on results from simulation studies whereas analyses of real data remain sparse. The main difficulty in quantifying the spatial pattern of disease spread is the paucity of available data together with the challenge of incorporating optimally the limited information into models of disease transmission. To address this challenge the role of routine migration on the spatial pattern of infection during the epidemic of 2009 pandemic influenza in England is investigated here through two modelling approaches: parallel-region models, where epidemics in different regions are assumed to occur in isolation with shared characteristics; and meta-region models where inter-region transmission is expressed as a function of the commuter flux between regions. Results highlight that the significantly less computationally demanding parallel-region approach is sufficiently flexible to capture the underlying dynamics. This suggests that inter-region movement is either inaccurately characterized by the available commuting data or insignificant once its initial impact on transmission has subsided.
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was supported by the National Institute for Health Research (HTA Project:11/46/03) the UK Medical Research Council (Unit Programme Number U105260566) and Public Health England.
dc.languageengen
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherNature Publishing Group
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectepidemiologyen
dc.subjectstatisticsen
dc.titleReconstructing a spatially heterogeneous epidemic: Characterising the geographic spread of 2009 A/H1N1pdm infection in Englanden
dc.typeArticle
prism.number29004en
prism.publicationDate2016en
prism.publicationNameScientific Reportsen
prism.volume6en
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.9074
dcterms.dateAccepted2016-06-09en
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1038/srep29004en
rioxxterms.versionVoRen
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
rioxxterms.licenseref.startdate2016-07-11en
dc.contributor.orcidBirrell, Paul [0000-0001-8131-4893]
dc.contributor.orcidDe Angelis, Daniela [0000-0001-6619-6112]
dc.identifier.eissn2045-2322
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen


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Attribution 4.0 International
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as Attribution 4.0 International