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A Bayesian network approach for coastal risk analysis and decision making

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Jäger, WS 
Christie, EK 
Hanea, AM 
den Heijer, C 

Abstract

Emergency management and long-term planning in coastal areas depend on detailed assessments (meter scale) of flood and erosion risks. Typically, models of the risk chain are fragmented into smaller parts, because the physical processes involved are very complex and consequences can be diverse. We developed a Bayesian network (BN) approach to integrate the separate models. An important contribution is the learning algorithm for the BN. As input data, we used hindcast and synthetic extreme event scenarios, information on land use and vulnerability relationships (e.g., depth-damage curves). As part of the RISC-KIT (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts toolKIT) project, we successfully tested the approach and algorithm in a range of morphological settings. We also showed that it is possible to include hazards from different origins, such as marine and riverine sources. In this article, we describe the application to the town of Wells-next-the-Sea, Norfolk, UK, which is vulnerable to storm surges. For any storm input scenario, the BN estimated the percentage of affected receptors in different zones of the site by predicting their hazards and damages. As receptor types, we considered people, residential and commercial properties, and a saltmarsh ecosystem. Additionally, the BN displays the outcome of different disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures. Because the model integrates the entire risk chain with DRR measures and predicts in real-time, it is useful for decision support in risk management of coastal areas.

Description

Keywords

Natural hazards, Disaster risk reduction, Southern North Sea, Source-pathway-receptor concept

Journal Title

Coastal Engineering

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0378-3839
1872-7379

Volume Title

134

Publisher

Elsevier BV
Sponsorship
European Commission (603458)
European Community's 7th Framework Programme through the grant to RISC-KIT (Resilience-increasing Strategies for Coasts - Toolkit"), contract no. 603458.