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How to develop a more accurate risk prediction model when there are few events.

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

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Type

Article

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Authors

Pavlou, Menelaos 
Ambler, Gareth 
Seaman, Shaun R 
Guttmann, Oliver 
Elliott, Perry 

Abstract

When the number of events is low relative to the number of predictors, standard regression could produce overfitted risk models that make inaccurate predictions. Use of penalised regression may improve the accuracy of risk prediction

Description

Keywords

Models, Statistical, Regression Analysis, Reproducibility of Results, Risk Assessment, Sample Size

Journal Title

BMJ

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0959-8146
1756-1833

Volume Title

351

Publisher

BMJ