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De Finetti on the insurance of risks and uncertainties

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

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Type

Article

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Authors

Feduzi, A 
Zappia, C 

Abstract

In the insurance literature, it is often argued that private markets can provide insurance against ‘risks’ but not against ‘uncertainties’ in the sense of Knight ([1921]) or Keynes ([1921]). This claim is at odds with the standard economic model of risk exchange which, in assuming that decision-makers are always guided by point-valued subjective probabilities, predicts that all uncertainties can, in theory, be insured. Supporters of the standard model argue that the insuring of highly idiosyncratic risks by Lloyd's of London proves that this is so even in practice. The purpose of this article is to show that Bruno de Finetti, famous as one of the three founding fathers of the subjective approach to probability assumed by the standard model, actually made a theoretical case for uncertainty within the subjectivist approach. We draw on empirical evidence from the practice of underwriters to show how this case may help explain the reluctance of insurers to cover highly uncertain contingencies.

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Keywords

risk, uncertainty, insurance, de Finetti

Journal Title

The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

1464-3537
1464-3537

Volume Title

63

Publisher

University of Chicago Press