The ecology of rape: the case of Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract

The objective of this article is to report the results of an ecological study into the geography of rape in Stockholm, Sweden using small area data. In order to test the importance of factors indicating opportunity, accessibility and anonymity to the understanding of the geography of rape, a two-stage modelling approach is implemented. First, the overall risk factors associated with the occurrence of rape are identified using a standard Poisson regression, then a local analysis using profile regression is performed. Findings show that accessibility, opportunity and anonymity are all, to different degrees, important in explaining the the overall geography of rape. The local analysis reveals two groupings of high rape risk areas associated with a variety of risk factors. The city centre areas with a concentration of subway stations, high residential population turnover and high counts of robbery; and poor suburban areas, with schools, where subway stops are located and where people express a high fear of crime. The article concludes by reflecting upon the importance of these results for future research as well as indicating the implications of these results for policy.