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Integrating uncertainty into public energy research and development decisions

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

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Type

Article

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Authors

Anadón, Laura Díaz 
Baker, Erin 
Bosetti, Valentina 

Abstract

Public energy research and development (R&D) is recognized as a key policy tool for transforming the world’s energy system in a cost-effective way. However, managing the uncertainty surrounding technological change is a critical challenge for designing robust and cost-effective energy policies. The design of such policies is particularly important if countries are going to both meet the ambitious greenhouse-gas emissions reductions goals set by the Paris Agreement and achieve the required harmonization with the broader set of objectives dictated by the Sustainable Development Goals. The complexity of informing energy technology policy requires, and is producing, a growing collaboration between different academic disciplines and practitioners. Three analytical components have emerged to support the integration of technological uncertainty into energy policy: expert elicitations, integrated assessment models, and decision frameworks. Here we review efforts to incorporate all three approaches to facilitate public energy R&D decision-making under uncertainty. We highlight emerging insights that are robust across elicitations, models, and frameworks, relating to the allocation of public R&D investments, and identify gaps and challenges that remain.

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Keywords

40 Engineering, 4008 Electrical Engineering, 4017 Mechanical Engineering, Clinical Research, Generic health relevance, 7 Affordable and Clean Energy, 13 Climate Action

Journal Title

Nature Energy

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

2058-7546
2058-7546

Volume Title

2

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Sponsorship
European Commission Horizon 2020 (H2020) Societal Challenges (730403)