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Countable additivity, idealization, and conceptual realism

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Abstract

jats:titleAbstract</jats:title>jats:pThis paper addresses the issue of finite versus countable additivity in Bayesian probability and decision theory – in particular, Savage’s theory of subjective expected utility and personal probability. I show that Savage’s reason for not requiring countable additivity in his theory is inconclusive. The assessment leads to an analysis of various highly idealized assumptions commonly adopted in Bayesian theory, where I argue that a healthy dose of, what I call, conceptual realism is often helpful in understanding the interpretational value of sophisticated mathematical structures employed in applied sciences like decision theory. In the last part, I introduce countable additivity into Savage’s theory and explore some technical properties in relation to other axioms of the system.</jats:p>

Description

Keywords

countable additivity, foundations of probability, Bayesian decision theory, idealization, conceptual realism

Journal Title

Economics and Philosophy

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0266-2671
1474-0028

Volume Title

36

Publisher

Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Sponsorship
Templeton World Charity Foundation (TWCF) (177155)
Isaac Newton Trust (18.08(o))
Leverhulme Trust (ECF-2018-305)
The Leverhulme Trust