Since the end of the Cold War, America has generated a dangerous paradox in global affairs. Every president from Bill Clinton to Donald Trump has entered office with little foreign policy experience. Yet these men were instantly granted vast powers, which impacted global events.

This thesis addresses how decisions made during a presidential campaign can influence the subsequent administration’s foreign policy and thus affect international relations. Specifically, it develops a structured approach using the political and social science research tools described below. George W. Bush’s 2000 campaign and foreign policy provide a case study.

The second chapter of this thesis uses interviews and earlier biographical, historical, and psychological research to establish a baseline of Bush’s pre-campaign background and decisionmaking. Chapter Three mines a new source of internet data and uses content analysis and both qualitative and quantitative methods to distill the campaign’s foreign policy. Chapters Four through Six combine interviews with key Bush advisers (including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Chief of Staff Josh Bolten) with other sources to describe how campaign policies were developed and then used to shape the Bush Administration’s actions. Chapter Seven analyzes the administration’s final policy results and finds that Bush’s 2000 campaign set the course for significant modifications and foreign policy shifts.

The thesis concludes that three issue areas are of particular importance: (1) the shaping of a candidate’s worldview; (2) the choice of core advisers; and (3) the establishment of policy priorities. Their ramifications included edging America towards conflict with Iraq and facilitating China’s rise to global power. Overall, the new analytic framework developed in this thesis can be used to explore the decisionmaking of a range of leaders.