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Why Thirlwall's Law Is Not a Tautology: More on the Debate Over the Law

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

McCombie, John 

Abstract

This paper reconsiders the argument first debated in the 1980s and revisited by Blecker (2016) and Razmi (2016), inter alios, that Thirlwall’s law is nothing but a near identity. It is shown theoretically and by simulation analysis that this proposition is erroneous. It is also demonstrated that Razmi’s (2016) specification of the balance-of-payments constrained growth model is problematical. The paper concludes by assessing the effectiveness of the rate of change of relative prices for export and import growth. Recent evidence provides further support for the importance of non-price competitiveness in international trade and, hence, for Thirlwall’s law.

Description

Keywords

Thirlwall's law, balance-of-payments-constrained growth, tautology, price and non-price competitiveness

Journal Title

Review of Keynesian Economics

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

2049-5323
2049-5331

Volume Title

7

Publisher

Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.

Rights

All rights reserved
Sponsorship
None