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Impact of follow-up time and analytical approaches to account for reverse causality on the association between physical activity and health outcomes in UK Biobank.

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

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Article

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Authors

Sharp, Stephen J 
Dempsey, Paddy C 
Wareham, Nick 

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The advent of very large cohort studies (n > 500 000) has given rise to prospective analyses of health outcomes being undertaken after short (<4 years) follow-up periods. However, these studies are potentially at risk of reverse causality bias. We investigated differences in the associations between self-reported physical activity and all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, and incident CVD, using different follow-up time cut-offs and methods to account for reverse causality bias. METHODS: Data were from n = 452 933 UK Biobank participants, aged 38-73 years at baseline. Median available follow-up time was 7 years (for all-cause and CVD mortality) and 6.1 years (for incident CVD). We additionally analysed associations at 1-, 2- and 4-year cut-offs after baseline. We fit up to four models: (1) adjusting for prevalent CVD and cancer, (2) excluding prevalent disease, (3) and (4) Model 2 excluding incident cases in the first 12 and 24 months, respectively. RESULTS: The strength of associations decreased as follow-up time cut-off increased. For all-cause mortality, Model 1 hazard ratios were 0.73 (0.69-0.78) after 1 year and 0.86 (0.84-0.87) after 7 years. Associations were weaker with increasing control for possible reverse causality. After 7-years follow-up, the hazard ratios were 0.86 (0.84-0.87) and 0.88 (0.86-0.90) for Models 1 and 4, respectively. Associations with CVD outcomes followed similar trends. CONCLUSIONS: As analyses with longer follow-up times and increased control for reverse causality showed weaker associations, there are implications for the decision about when to analyse a cohort study with ongoing data collection, the interpretation of study results and their contribution to meta-analyses.

Description

Keywords

Exercise, bias, epidemiologic methods, follow-up studies, physical activity, prospective studies, Adult, Aged, Cardiovascular Diseases, Causality, Cohort Studies, Exercise, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Incidence, Life Style, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Neoplasms, Prospective Studies, Time Factors

Journal Title

Int J Epidemiol

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0300-5771
1464-3685

Volume Title

49

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Rights

All rights reserved
Sponsorship
Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12015/3)
Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12015/1)
Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (CUH) (146281)
National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) (via Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute) (APP 1142685)
Department of Health (via National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)) (NF-SI-0617-10149)
MRC (MC_UU_00006/4)
This work was supported by the Medical Research Council [grant numbers MC_UU_12015/1 and MC_UU_12015/3] (TS, KW, SS, PCD, NW, SB) and a National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia research fellowship [No. 1142685] (PCD).